Officials at UC RUSAL have said emerging technical and physical developments are providing the top global aluminum maker a bullish economic environment. Moreover, 1.2-million-ton and 985,000-ton deficits in 2014 and 2015, respectively, include expansion guidance at EMAL (EGA), Ma’aden and Press Metal, along with Indian ramp-ups, they added, although opportunities outside China are limited.

Within the mainland, however, the Russia-based RUSAL foresees 2013 demands of 25.5 million metric tons (mt), broadly equal to production by Q4 2014 with growth exceeding 10%. Capacity additions of 2.4 million mt introduced year-to-date, on the other hand, have been offset by 2.1 million mt of capacity closures from underperforming smelter operations.

Amid a nickel rally from an Indonesian ore export ban, meanwhile, more than 4 million mt per month of the archipelago’s bauxite was shipped to China in 2013, the basis for 10 million mt of annualized production, RUSAL added. This represented 20% of global output, according to officials, which has fallen to 4 million mt year-to-date.