The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) met in Lisbon, Portugal, on April 25, 2024. Government delegates and industry advisors from most of the world’s leading copper producing and using countries discussed key issues affecting the global copper market and made the following predictions for 2024-2025.
World copper mine production is expected to increase by 0.5% in 2024 with growth of 3.9% forecast in 2025. The rate of growth of world copper mine production in 2024 has been revised down to 0.5% vis-à-vis the 3.7% forecast by the group in October 2023. This is mainly due to the slower than expected ramp-up of several projects, delays in project commissioning, revised company production guidance and the closure of First Quantum’s 380,000-metric-ton-per-year (mt/y) Cobre Panama mine.
In 2025, global output will benefit from the start-up of the Malmyzhskoye mine in the Russian Federation as well as the Kamoa-Kakula phase 3 expansion in the DRC. Expansions and the opening of some medium and small mines will also add to production.
World refined copper production is forecast to rise by about 2.8% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. In 2024, refined copper output is expected to recover from a series of maintenance outages, accidents and operational issues that occurred in 2023 in a number of major copper-producing countries including Chile, Japan, India, Indonesia and United States.
Overall, primary electrolytic refined output is expected to increase by 2.9% and electrowinning production by 0.5%.
In 2025, although production will benefit from the continued expansion of Chinese electrolytic capacity and the ramp-up of new smelters/refineries in Indonesia and India, primary electrolytic refined production growth is expected to be limited by the constrained availability of concentrates and to increase by a modest 0.7%. However, electrowinning output is forecast to rise by 4% and secondary refined production (from scrap) by 6%, benefiting from expanded capacity.
World apparent refined copper usage is expected to increase by about 2% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025. The rate of growth in world refined usage has been revised down for 2024 to 2% from the 2.7% forecast at the group’s October 2023 meetings.
Chinese usage is expected to grow by about 2% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025. After an estimated decline of 3% in 2023, world ex-China usage in 2024 and 2025 is expected to increase by 2.4% and 3.8% respectively, mainly due to the development of new semis production capacity in India and a number of other countries.
ICSG expects a surplus of about 162,000 mt for 2024 compared to a surplus of about 467,000 tonnes forecast last October with the difference mainly due to lower than anticipated refined copper production. A surplus of about 94,000 mt is currently expected for 2025.
