The latest data from Earth-i’s SAVANT Global Copper Monitoring Index (August 14, 2024) shows that an average of 16.2% of global smelter capacity (covering 90% of the total) was inactive in the first seven months of 2024, compared with the more usual level of 13.9% posted in the same period last year. In July, however, the index averaged 17.1%, down from almost 20% the previous month.

The decline was driven mainly by China where smelter inactivity ended July at 9.9% compared with 12.4% through to mid-month, following restarts after maintenance closures. Inactivity outside China was little changed over the month.

Several major smelters both in and outside China have restarted in recent weeks after the completion of scheduled maintenance to more than offset patchy outages at some smaller plants.

China’s 220,000 metric-ton-per-year (mt/y) Chifeng Jintong facility resumed in July following a planned one-month closure. On top of that, the Fubang plant has resumed after a 3-month long closure while the Baotou, Wuxin and Kunming facilities remain long-term inactive. Some reports suggest that Kunming will be replaced by a new plant as early as August 2024, but as yet Earth-i sees no indication, but it will continue to monitor for signs of activity.

In Germany, the large Hamburg smelter owned by Aurubis has returned to production as planned following completion of maintenance, while Earth-i noted inactivity at Samsun in Turkey, Tsumeb in Namibia, and most significantly Isabel Leyte in the Philippines.

Looking ahead to 2025, persistent tightness in the copper concentrate market means smelter activity levels will remain important to monitor, particularly amid reports that two major producers plan to curb their output.

Earth-i is a geospatial intelligence company using machine learning, artificial intelligence and Earth Observation data to provide relevant insight into industrial activity. Earth-i’s SAVANT platform provides indicators of smelter activities around the globe, in an easy-to-understand format, covering multiple metals and minerals.

https://earthi.space/services/savant-metals-smelting-insight/

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